Cytokine storm dynamics in hantavirus pulmonary syndrome: a multiscale ODE model with Wasserstein early-warning score and application to the 2026 Andes virus outbreak
B2 medRxiv preprint server · 2026-05-20 · France · ANDV
BackgroundThe ongoing Andes hantavirus outbreak linked to the cruise ship MV Hondius (April-May 2026, seven confirmed cases, three deaths, patients hospitalised across six countries including France) highlights the urgent need for mechanistic tools to predict which hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) patients will progress to fatal cytokine storm. MethodsWe present a 14-variable antigen-gated ordinary differential equation (ODE) model integrating viral dynamics, CD8+ cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) expansion, four cytokines (TNF-, IFN-{gamma}, IL-6, IL-10), VEGF-mediated vascular permeability, a
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HORIZON metadata
| Source | medRxiv preprint server (medrxiv) |
|---|---|
| NATO rating | B2 — see methodology |
| Country | France |
| Serotype | ANDV |
| Reported date | 2026-05-20 |
| Ingested at | 2026-06-19 00:40 UTC |